Sub-Saharan Africa
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the researchers found food security will be the overarching challenge, with dangers from droughts, flooding, and shifts in rainfall.
Between 1.5°C-2°C warming, drought and aridity, will contribute to farmers losing 40-80 percent of cropland conducive to growing maize, millet, and sorghum by the 2030s-2040s, the researchers found.
In a 4°C warmer world, around the 2080s, annual precipitation may decrease by up to 30 percent in southern Africa, while East Africa will see more rainfall, according to multiple studies. Ecosystem changes to pastoral lands, such as a shift from grass to woodland savannas as levels of carbon dioxide increase, could reduce food for grazing cattle.
In South East Asia, coastal cities will be under intense stress due to climate change.
A sea-level rise of 30 cm, possible by 2040 if business as usual continues, would cause massive flooding in cities and inundate low-lying cropland with saltwater corrosive to crops. Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, a global rice producer, is particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise. A 30 cm sea-level rise there could result in the loss of about 11 percent of crop production. At the same time, storm intensity is likely to increase.
The study also describes rising ocean acidity leading to the loss of coral reefs and the benefits they provide as fish habitats, protection against storms, and revenue-generators in the form of tourism. Warmer water temperatures and habitat destruction could also lead to a 50 percent decrease in the ocean fish catch in the southern Philippines, the report says.
Water scarcity in some areas and overabundance of water in others are the hallmarks of climate change in South Asia, the researchers found.
Inconsistences in the monsoon season and unusual heat extremes will affect crops. Loss of snow melt from the Himalayas will reduce the flow of water into the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra basins. Together, they threaten to leave hundreds of millions of people without enough water, food, or access to reliable energy. Bangladesh and the Indian cities of Kolkata and Mumbai will be confronted with increased flooding, intense cyclones, sea-level rise, and warming temperatures.
World Bank’s response
The Bank is also developing a Climate Management Action Plan, informed by theTurn Down the Heat reports, to direct its future work and finance through a climate lens. Among other things, the Bank will:
• Help countries develop strategic plans and investment pipelines that integrate the risks and opportunities of climate change.
• Provide the tools that countries and cities need to better assess and adapt to climate change, including greenhouse gas emissions tracking, energy use and efficiency assessments, and assessments of resilience.
• Create best practices and norms through its projects for making infrastructure resilient, not just today but decades into the future.
• Use its convening power, financial leverage and targeted climate funds to increase support for clean energy, low-carbon development, and climate resilience.
In order to help countries build resilience, the Bank will prioritize the most vulnerable areas, manage water availability and extremes, and increase its efforts to meet growing food demand. It will work with the world’s largest emitters to lower their impact through carbon emissions and short-lived climate pollutants. Its specialists are working on ways to help governments end fossil fuel subsidies while protecting the poor, connect global carbon markets, and make agriculture and cities climate-smart and resilient.
“I do not believe the poor are condemned to the future scientists envision in this report,” Kim said. “We are determined to work with countries to find solutions.”