Climate Change: Global Warming or Global Cooling?

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This diagram shows how the greenhouse effect works. Incoming solar radiation to the Earth equals 341 watts per square meter (Trenberth et al., 2009). Some of the solar radiation is reflected back from the Earth by clouds, the atmosphere, and the Earth's surface (102 watts per square meter). Some of the solar radiation passes through the atmosphere. About half of the solar radiation is absorbed by the Earth's surface (161 watts per square meter). Solar radiation is converted to heat energy, causing the emission of longwave (infrared) radiation back to the atmosphere (396 watts per square meter). Some of the infrared radiation is absorbed an re-emitted by heat-trapping "greenhouse" gases in the atmosphere. Outgoing infrared radiation from the Earth equals 239 watts per square meter. 

Global warming. It is a phrase that mostly makes sense to those who are alert on matters related to climate change. Or is it?

According to the Oxford Dictionary; "Global Warming is a  gradual increase of the earth’s temperature due to greenhouse effect caused by the increase in carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons and other pollutants."

Just six years ago, the BBC predicted that more than a million arctic seas filled with ice will have melted away by the summer of 2013. And now? There is an extraordinary “reverse” of global warming that has led to a 60% rise in ice covered ocean. Global warming has “paused”. 

Leaked documents show that governments which support and finance IPCC are demanding more than 1500 changes to the reports by scientists. They say its current draft does not properly explain the “pause”. Recent reports show that there is a 60% increase in the amount of ocean covered with ice compared to September last year, the equivalent of almost a million square miles. A leaked report to the UN intergovernmental panel on climate change has led some scientists to, claim that the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century that is for at least 15 years, Professor Anastasios Tsonis, of the University of Wisconsin said. The changing predictions led to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change holding a crisis meeting, and released a report on the situation in October 2013. 


Effects of Global Warming
On the back of these dire warnings, billions of pounds were invested in green measures to combat agents of climate change such as greenhouse gas emissions. But the secret UN memo reveals that the ice has spread quickly following the smallest ever frozen surface area, this time last year.

On a speculative note  do you wonder about why August 2013 was cold and September 2013 was not as hot. Well, this explains it all. *raised eyebrows and side eye*

 According to Francesco Femia, co-founder of the Centre for Climate and Security, the Syrian conflict that has caught the attention of the world was preceded by the “worst long-term drought and most severe set of crop failures since agricultural civilisations began in the Fertile Crescent.”
The severe drought, combined with massive crop failures and poor agricultural policy on the part of the Assad regime, forced mass migrations from the countryside to cities that were already hard-pressed by refugees from Iraq, Femia argues. Military analysts overlooked these factors and argued that Syria would be immune to the civil unrest that had previously swept through authoritarian Middle Eastern regimes. …
“Climate change primarily manifests itself through water,” Femia added. “But it varies; different kinds of water, different ways. It can lead to more extreme weather events: either a drought or a major storm or an amount of rainfall that’s unusual and leads to flooding. It’s not just scarcity, it’s too much, too little and unpredictably.”
“Climate change is going to have security implications across the globe and conflict is just one area of concern,” Femia said.

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Waste and Water Management: Turkana Water Summit 2014

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Lotikipi Basin Aquifer
Turkana Hit water! That is old news now, but a year ago, it was all we could talk about. It also led us to believe, though naively that this discovery would miraculously put an end to pictures of starving Turkana people hit by severe drought.

Although that has yet to happen, this discovery of a vast aquifer (refers to a large mass of underground water) in a traditionally water deprived region is significant not just because of the international headlines that it has generated, but more because it is located in the driest part of the country.



Lake Turkana South Island
For many Kenyans pictures of starving Turkana people hit by severe drought still linger  especially because the only other reliable supply of water is Lake Turkana; a salty water mass and is therefore not a source of drinking water.

The Lotikipi Basin Aquifer discovered in Turkana has yet to be realized to date, but thankfully, well, we hope that the upcoming National Water Summit to be held on October 9 - 10 in Turkana County will highlight the county's plan to provide fresh water to its residents in a sustainable way; all while ensuring that the vulnerable elements of Turkana's ecosystem are protected. Experts, read UNESCO/OXFAM predict that the newly found aquifer if well managed could "provide Kenya with fresh water for the next 70 years". Go here to read more about this Summit.

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Climate Change: What Does That Really Mean?

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According to the World Bank June 19, 2013


As the coastal cities of Africa and Asia expand, many of their poorest residents are being pushed to the edges of livable land and into the most dangerous zones for climate change. Their informal settlements cling to riverbanks and cluster in low-lying areas with poor drainage, few public services, and no protection from storm surges, sea-level rise, and flooding.
These communities – the poor in coastal cities and on low-lying islands – are among the world’s most vulnerable to climate change and the least able to marshal the resources to adapt, a new report finds. They face a world where climate change will increasingly threaten the food supplies of Sub-Saharan Africa and the farm fields and water resources of South Asia and South East Asia within the next three decades, while extreme weather puts their homes and lives at risk.
A new scientific report commissioned by the World Bank and released on June 19, explores the risks to lives and livelihoods in these three highly vulnerable regions.Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience (Read it in Issuu, Scribd, and Open Knowledge Repository) takes the climate discussion to the next level, building on a 2012 World Bank report that concluded from a global perspective that without a clear mitigation strategy and effort, the world is headed for average temperatures 4 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times, by the end of this century.

Small number, big problem
Communities around the world are already feeling the impacts of climate change today, with the planet only 0.8 ºC warmer than in pre-industrial times. Many of us could experience the harsher impacts of a 2ºC warmer world within our lifetimes – 20 to 30 years from now – and  4ºC is likely by the end of the century without global action.
The report lays out what these temperature increases will look like, degree-by-degree, in each targeted region and the damage anticipated for agricultural production, coastal cities, and water resources.
“The scientists tell us that if the world warms by 2°C – warming which may be reached in 20 to 30 years – that will cause widespread food shortages, unprecedented heat-waves, and more intense cyclones," said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim. "In the near-term, climate change, which is already unfolding, could batter the slums even more and greatly harm the lives and the hopes of individuals and families who have had little hand in raising the Earth's temperature.”
The report, based on scientific analysis by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, uses advanced computer simulations to paint the clearest picture of each region’s vulnerabilities. It describes the risks to agriculture and livelihood security in Sub-Saharan Africa; the rise in sea-level, loss of coral reefs and devastation to coastal areas likely in South East Asia; and the fluctuating water resources in South Asia that can lead to flooding in some areas and water scarcity in others, as well as affecting power supply.
“The second phase of this report truly reiterates our need to bring global attention to the tasks necessary to hold warming to 2ºC,” said Rachel Kyte, the Bank’s vice president for sustainable development. “Our ideas at the World Bank have already been put into practice as we move forward to assist those whose lives are particularly affected by extreme weather events.”
Open Quotes
The scientists tell us that if the world warms by 2°C – warming which may be reached in 20 to 30 years – that will cause widespread food shortages, unprecedented heat-waves, and more intense cyclones. Close Quotes
Jim Yong Kim, President of the World Bank Group
Jim Yong KimPresident, World Bank Group
Sub-Saharan Africa
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the researchers found food security will be the overarching challenge, with dangers from droughts, flooding, and shifts in rainfall.
Between 1.5°C-2°C warming, drought and aridity, will contribute to farmers losing  40-80 percent of cropland conducive to growing maize, millet, and sorghum by the 2030s-2040s, the researchers found.
In a 4°C warmer world, around the 2080s, annual precipitation may decrease by up to 30 percent in southern Africa, while East Africa will see more rainfall, according to multiple studies. Ecosystem changes to pastoral lands, such as a shift from grass to woodland savannas as levels of carbon dioxide increase, could reduce food for grazing cattle.
In South East Asia, coastal cities will be under intense stress due to climate change.
A sea-level rise of 30 cm, possible by 2040 if business as usual continues, would cause massive flooding in cities and inundate low-lying cropland with saltwater corrosive to crops. Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, a global rice producer, is particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise.  A 30 cm sea-level rise there could result in the loss of about 11 percent of crop production. At the same time, storm intensity is likely to increase.
The study also describes rising ocean acidity leading to the loss of coral reefs and the benefits they provide as fish habitats, protection against storms, and revenue-generators in the form of tourism.  Warmer water temperatures and habitat destruction could also lead to a 50 percent decrease in the ocean fish catch in the southern Philippines, the report says.
Water scarcity in some areas and overabundance of water in others are the hallmarks of climate change in South Asia, the researchers found.
Inconsistences in the monsoon season and unusual heat extremes will affect crops. Loss of snow melt from the Himalayas will reduce the flow of water into the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra basins. Together, they threaten to leave hundreds of millions of people without enough water, food, or access to reliable energy. Bangladesh and the Indian cities of Kolkata and Mumbai will be confronted with increased flooding, intense cyclones, sea-level rise, and warming temperatures. 
World Bank’s response
In his first year as president of the World Bank, Jim Kim has raised the profile of climate change in speeches and in conversations with leaders around the world, as well as within the institution. The Bank is currently working with 130 countries on climate change; it doubled its lending for adaptation to $4.6 billion in 2012 and put $7.1 billion into mitigation, in addition to its work with carbon finance and the Climate Investment Funds; and it now includes climate change in all country assessments.
The Bank is also developing a Climate Management Action Plan, informed by theTurn Down the Heat reports, to direct its future work and finance through a climate lens. Among other things, the Bank will:
•             Help countries develop strategic plans and investment pipelines that integrate the risks and opportunities of climate change.
•             Provide the tools that countries and cities need to better assess and adapt to climate change, including greenhouse gas emissions tracking, energy use and efficiency assessments, and assessments of resilience.
•             Create best practices and norms through its projects for making infrastructure resilient, not just today but decades into the future.
•             Use its convening power, financial leverage and targeted climate funds to increase support for clean energy, low-carbon development, and climate resilience.
In order to help countries build resilience, the Bank will prioritize the most vulnerable areas, manage water availability and extremes, and increase its efforts to meet growing food demand. It will work with the world’s largest emitters to lower their impact through carbon emissions and short-lived climate pollutants. Its specialists are working on ways to help governments end fossil fuel subsidies while protecting the poor, connect global carbon markets, and make agriculture and cities climate-smart and resilient.
 “I do not believe the poor are condemned to the future scientists envision in this report,” Kim said. “We are determined to work with countries to find solutions.”

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Food Security: Full Planet, Changing Climate, Empty Plates…

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The world population is estimated to be 7.017 billion, according to the United States Census Bureau in March 12 2012 Report. The UN Population Division estimated that by 2050, the global population is projected to be between 8.3 billion and 10.9 Billion.

What does this mean for Africa?

That out of the 7.017 billion, it is the second most populated continent following Asia with its 4.2 billion inhabitants accounting for over 60% of the world’s population and 15% of the world’s population which is close to one billion people is from Africa.

Map showing urban areas with at least one million inhabitants in 2006. Only 3% of the world's population lived in cities in 1800; this proportion had risen to 47% by 2000, and reached 50.5% by 2010.[47] By 2050, the proportion may reach 70%.[48]
20th August 2013 Marked the Earth Overshoot Day, The approximate date our resource
consumption for a given year exceeds the planets ability to replenish. The Earth Overshoot day arrives a few days earlier each year. This is but a minuscule indicator of how dire the food situation is globally.

Population growth will greatly increase the amount of food needed to adequately feed sub Saharan Africa’s people. Sub Sahara Population is projected to reach to 2 billion people in 2050. 

Why is Africa at risk?

Today, 30 million children (1 in 5) in sub-Saharan Africa are underweight – 5.5 million more than 20 years ago. In March 12 2012, statistics show that nearly 240 million people or one person in every four lack adequate food to a healthy and active life.


In 2009, Kenya's population was estimated at 38.6 million, up from 28.7 million in 1999, 21.4 million in 1989 and 15.3 million in 1979 (CBS, 1979, 1989, 1999, KNBS, 2010). Please note that a third (12.7 million) of Kenyans live in urban areas with 60-70% of those in informal settlements, where land is scarce and the environmental conditions tolerable at best, causing 35% of children under the age of five years to be stunted, 16% underweight and 7% to be wasted. [Kenya Demographic Health Survey 2009].

How Secure is our food supply considering the number of people that need to be fed?
What measures are being put forward to adapt to the changing climate? What measures are being put forward to prepare for the future? Watch the following trailer to the documentary: Future of Food.



Will we continue to waste food because we know we can afford it? What is the government doing to make sure their population's food supply is secure? 

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